Cotton price rise: supply and demand imbalance is the main cause
Recently, in the internal futures market, the main contract price of Zheng cotton showed a wave of high tide trend, nearly 8 trading days, a cumulative increase of 22.44%, a new high in nearly 10 years. Many say cotton prices have not reached this high in the past decade, but those in the industry are not surprised, as this is nothing more than a result of supply and demand imbalance.
Cotton as a kind of agricultural product, output depends largely on planting conditions. For example, the current global cotton supply has been limited by factors such as El Nino weather. At the same time, in the process of cotton logistics transportation, many shipping companies are raising freight costs, indirectly leading to the increase in cotton trade costs, supply reduction, demand exceeds supply, resulting in the cotton price hit a new high in recent years.
Higher cotton prices will undoubtedly mean a further rise in the cost of making clothes. How to break the deadlock of the cotton supply and demand relationship? Many processing and manufacturing industries have begun, and even advance the layout of cotton industry chain supply and demand links.
For example, the downstream textile and garment manufacturers have adopted the cost-plus pricing model, and the price rise of raw materials will not have a huge impact on performance. There are enterprises in advance to predict the price trend of cotton, in order to ensure stable production of cotton products, in the form of futures locked the cotton price in advance, fully ensure the company production needs.
Usda September report revised upwards for world cotton production and demand for 21/22, but demand growth outpaced production growth, leading to a downward revision in ending stocks. Among them, the increase in consumption (180,000 tons) was mainly in Pakistan (90,000 tons) and Bangladesh (40,000 tons), while the increase in production (160,000 tons) was mainly in the United States (270,000 tons) and the decrease in production (110,000 tons) in India. Global cotton ending inventory continues to reduce 120,000 tons, stocks-sales ratio continues to fall, the overall international cotton price.
While some companies have already taken steps to deal with rising cotton prices that will not have a major impact in the short term, the wave of price increases triggered by rising cotton prices could be broader. With the further easing of global logistics pressure, cotton price rises are also expected to be restrained.
Higher dot cotton prices will undoubtedly mean that the cost of manufacturing clothing will rise further
Cotton prices rose in the first three quarters, and the high cost of new season cotton has pushed up cotton prices. At the end of September, affected by the warming of Sino-US trade relations, the market atmosphere is more, continue to pay attention to the US cotton export data. Around 11, new cotton has been listed, it is reported that Xinjiang ginning plant capacity expansion, rush to harvest war is about to begin, the recent seed cotton purchase price is basically in line with market expectations, pay attention to the follow-up seed cotton price changes. On the demand side, gold nine has passed, silver ten arrived, double control upgrades, downstream dyeing factories, weaving manufacturers reduce production, market wait-and-see atmosphere increased. Yarn and grey cloth inventory increased, domestic sales decreased significantly, in the absence of a large increase in exports, it is expected that the weak supply and demand will continue. On the whole, when new cotton is listed, the cotton price keeps rising, which is conducive to arbitrage market entry. However, after the fermentation of the positive factors, the subsequent pull-up momentum is weaker, so it is not recommended to chase high, and it is expected that the cotton price will fall in the fourth quarter.
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The market size of the dot cotton in the global cotton fabrics industry
With the continuous development of the production technology and process of the dot cotton in the industrial cotton fabrics industry, the application scope of the dot cotton is becoming more and more extensive and the market potential is huge. Its development level has become one of the important indicators to measure the comprehensive competitiveness of a country cotton fabrics industry.
Industrial cotton fabrics are defined as "products used in many non-cotton fabrics industries" internationally. Compared with the traditional cotton fabrics industry with labor-intensive and low technology content, the dot cotton industry has the characteristics and advantages of capital intensive, high technology content and huge market demand space.
In terms of the global market, the global industrial cotton fabrics market including dot cotton will reach usd 258.33 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach USD 321.65 billion in 2028. In the next few years, the global industrial cotton fabrics industry will still maintain a growing trend.
The market price of the dot cotton in the global cotton fabrics industry
Developed countries and regions such as the United States and the European Union occupy the leading position in dot cotton global industrial cotton fabrics market while emerging markets such as China and India show a high growth momentum.
Since the 1990s, due to the consideration of labor, raw materials and other cost factors, manufacturers in Europe and the United States and other developed countries have shifted their focus to product research and development, brand building, channel expansion and other aspects in China, so that the production and manufacturing capacity of dot cotton has gradually shifted to East Asian countries, especially the middle and low-end products.
The global industrial cotton fabrics dot cotton production bases are mainly concentrated in the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and the European industrial cotton fabrics industry is shifting to Asia and the United States. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for the highest proportion of 40%; North America is next at 25 percent, followed by the Middle East & Africa, Europe and South America.
The market trend of the dot cotton in the global cotton fabrics industry
Data in 2020 show that China cotton fabrics industry accounts for more than 50% of the world total, chemical fiber output accounts for 70% of the world, and trade accounts for one-third of the world. China has the most complete industrial chain, and most of its dot cotton process manufacturing and equipment level has reached the international advanced level. China is also the world largest cotton fabrics and apparel market. In 2020, the total retail sales of cotton fabrics and apparel in China exceeded 1,236.7 billion yuan.
COVID-19 has had a huge impact on the overall development of trade and the cotton fabrics industry. Enterprises in various segments have realized that they are heavily dependent on Chinese suppliers. When China was unable to supply dot cotton in the early stage of the epidemic, for example, the automobile and cotton fabrics industries could not produce normally. About 90 percent of materials imported by the EU, US and Japan come from China, underscoring the country importance in many products and raw material supply chains.
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