In order to promote the transformation and upgrading and high-quality development of the steel industry, the State Council’s Tariff Commission has decided to further adjust the export tax of certain steel products from August 1, 2021.
Among them, the export tax rates of high-purity pig iron and ferrochrome have been increased to 20% and 40% respectively. The Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on the cancellation of the export tax rebate for steel products. According to the announcement, following the cancellation of the export tax rebate for hot-rolled steel (long products and plates), pipes and other steel products in May, the original export tax rebate will be retained from August 1, 2021. Steel products such as cold-rolled, galvanized, silicon steel, steel rails, and oil drill pipes have also all been canceled for export tax rebates (from 13% to 0).
Prior to this, the market once expected that hot-rolled coils would be levied on export taxes, but this policy announcement is only to cancel export tax rebates, and the policy adjustments are lower than market expectations. Therefore, market sentiment has been boosted, which is positive for steel prices. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in May and June this year, my country exported 5.27 million tons of steel products and 6.46 million tons, an increase of 19.77% and 74.59% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of exports declined slightly in May, but there was a significant rebound in June. The main reason is that my country\'s steel prices began to fall in May, but overseas steel prices have remained strong, and the spread between domestic and overseas prices has further widened, so exports have not fallen but increased. Judging from the current demand for steel in overseas markets, there is still a need for further supplements. Therefore, even with the cancellation of export tax rebates in China, overseas demand for domestic steel imports is expected to remain large, and domestic steel exports will still be in the second half of the year. Opportunity to go higher.
With the successive release of crude steel reduction policies in various provinces, the market expects a reduction in steel supply in the second half of the year, which is also the most important factor supporting the operation of steel prices in the next and second half of the year.
After a short period of accumulation on the demand side, benefiting from the reduction in output and the backward shift in demand, the demand side entered the destocking stage in the second half of the year ahead of schedule, which also boosted market sentiment. The cancellation of the export tax rebate policy issued by the export sector, and the adjustment of the policy is lower than market expectations, which is positive for the price of steel.
At this stage, although the steel market is facing multiple positive factors, considering the high-level attitude towards price stabilization, the increase in steel prices is no longer expected to appear similar to the more "aggressive" market in the first half of the year, but the trend is more stable. Amidst the volatility, it moved up strongly, and the price center of gravity rose steadily.
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